← all sports · MLB · LIVE
MLB model picks today
Every MLB pick the autonomous model published today. Player props, alt-line plays, sharp-of-the-day. Same rows that fired on Discord. Refresh for live state.
MLB · CURRENT STREAKLosses in a row2Best win streak (30d)9
MLB · LAST 30 DAYSPicks161Wins84Losses71Hit rate54.2%
MLB · LAST 7 DAYSPicks69Props35Wins36Losses27Hit rate57.1%
MLB · BIGGEST DOG WINS · LAST 30 DAYS
- 2-Leg Parlay (2 legs) +150MLB · 2 legs+150
- Detroit Tigers -1Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers+115
- Miami Marlins -1San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins+-104
- Miami Marlins -1Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins+-119
- Over 7.5Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins+-120
No MLB picks published today. Showing the most-recent published picks below.
Most recent MLB (last 30)
- Under 10 · Alt Total
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Friendly alt under at 63.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 63.0% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.-375loss - Los Angeles Dodgers -1 · Alt Spread
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Friendly alt spread at 60.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Los Angeles Dodgers → away spread.-150win - Under 8.5 · Alt Total
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Friendly alt under at 59.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (59.3% vs 63.6%).-136loss - Over 7.5 · Alt Total
Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins
Friendly alt over at 58.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (58.3% vs 64.3%).-120win - Tampa Bay Rays -1 · Alt Spread
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Friendly alt spread at 57.4% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Tampa Bay Rays → home spread.-135loss - Miami Marlins -1 · Alt Spread
Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins
Friendly alt spread at 54.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Miami Marlins → home spread.-119win - Zack Gelof Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Athletics @ San Francisco Giants · Zack Gelof
Empirical 95.5% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +31.9pt EV.-175loss - Victor Caratini Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins · Victor Caratini
Empirical 78.4% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +16.1pt EV.-165win - Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals · Keibert Ruiz
Empirical 79.2% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +16.9pt EV.-165loss - Lane Thomas Over 0.5 Total Bases @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays · Lane Thomas
Empirical 71.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +8.5pt EV.-170loss - Over 7.5 · Alt Total
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Friendly alt over at 60.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (60.0% vs 62.3%).-150loss - St. Louis Cardinals -1 · Alt Spread
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
Friendly alt spread at 50.2% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite St. Louis Cardinals → home spread.-101push - Under 11 · Alt Total
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Friendly alt under at 60.8% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 60.8% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.-475win - Los Angeles Dodgers -1 · Alt Spread
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins
Friendly alt spread at 56.5% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Los Angeles Dodgers → away spread.-125push - Under 8.5 · Alt Total
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Friendly alt under at 62.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 7.5 ≤ 7.5 (low-scoring band) → under.-165win - Tampa Bay Rays -1 · Alt Spread
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays
Friendly alt spread at 57.6% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Tampa Bay Rays → home spread.-135loss - Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres · Mauricio Dubon
Empirical 83.2% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +20.2pt EV.-170win - Josh Bell Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins · Josh Bell
Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +22.7pt EV.-165loss - Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 Total Bases @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox · Chase Meidroth
Empirical 74.1% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.8pt EV.-165win - Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Total Bases @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds · Spencer Steer
Empirical 99.9% over last 7 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.6pt EV.-165loss - Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Total Bases @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals · Bryson Stott
Empirical 72.6% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +8.3pt EV.-180loss - Over 7 · Alt Total
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Friendly alt over at 63.6% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (63.6% vs 64.3%).-175win - Philadelphia Phillies -1 · Alt Spread
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Friendly alt spread at 57.6% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Philadelphia Phillies → home spread.-135win - Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies · Bryson Stott
Empirical 75.2% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +12.9pt EV.-165win - Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners · Josh Naylor
Empirical 76.8% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +14.5pt EV.-165loss - Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Hits @ 0.50 · Alt PlayerProp
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics · Nick Kurtz
Empirical 78.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +15.7pt EV.-165win - Under 10.5 · Alt Total
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Friendly alt under at 63.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (63.0% vs 63.6%).-170loss - Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 · Alt Spread
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Friendly alt spread at 53.1% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Los Angeles Dodgers → home spread.-113loss - Over 10 · Alt Total
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
Friendly alt over at 63.0% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 11.5 ≥ 10 (high-scoring band) → over.-170win - Pittsburgh Pirates -1 · Alt Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
Friendly alt spread at 55.9% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Pittsburgh Pirates → away spread.-125win
JSON: /api/picks/system-today?sport=mlb · /api/picks/system-week?sport=mlb · All sports: /picks/system